PHOENIX SCENARIO

Track 01 · Digital twin simulation

Cooling scenario lab

Test what a canopy, cool-roof, shade, or surface-albedo package could mean for one zone. Results are screening estimates with uncertainty, not forecasts or construction specifications.

Phoenix, Arizona

15 Jul 2025 · 16:00 MST

Counterfactual simulation

Scenario comparison

Screening · not a forecast

Baseline

42.3°C

Projected

40.8°C

Estimated reduction

1.5°C

Treatment package

What-if controls

Assessment zone

Shade Study Sample 07 · 42.3°C · canopy 23.7%

Tree canopy20 added

% added · cap 3.5°C

Cool roof0 of roofs treated

% of roofs treated · cap 2.4°C

Shade structures0 of route shaded

% of route shaded · cap 2.8°C

Surface albedo0 of impervious treated

% of impervious treated · cap 2°C

Contribution breakdown

Where the reduction comes from

Tree canopy−1.53°C

Estimated reduction1.5°C

Uncertainty band: 40.2°C to 41.4°C · confidence: Screening

Assumptions & limits

What this simulation includes and excludes

Coefficients are conservative, literature-informed screening ranges, not field-calibrated.
Canopy benefit diminishes where existing canopy is already high.
Cool-roof and surface-albedo effects scale with the built-up or impervious fraction present.
Interactions between treatments are not modeled additively beyond a per-treatment cap.
Persistence, humidity, and weather confounders are held constant.
Canopy growth is slow; benefits may lag implementation by years.

Screening-level estimate for hackathon decision support. Not a forecast, engineering specification, or guaranteed cooling outcome. Coefficients are conservative literature-informed ranges; field validation is required before investment.

Exposure reduction

3 pts

Category shift

HIGH → HIGH